MoneyTrack the US Federal Reserve policy rate and the Treasury yield curve — the two numbers that move global markets.
| Maturity | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Month | 3.78% | +0.018 pp |
| 5-Year | 4.57% | +0.023 pp |
| 10-Year | 4.81% | +0.022 pp |
| 30-Year | 5.26% | +0.018 pp |
Yields are the CBOE indicative rates for on-the-run US Treasuries, updated through the US session. “3-Month” is the 13-week T-bill discount rate, used here as the short-end reference in place of the 2-year note.
What the yield curve tells you
The yield curve plots US government borrowing costs from 3 months to 30 years. Normally it slopes upward — lenders want more for locking money away longer. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields (an inversion), it signals that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in future, usually because growth is slowing. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is the version the New York Fed uses in its recession-probability model.
Frequently asked questions
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
It means investors can earn more on a 3-month Treasury bill than on a 10-year note. That only makes sense if they expect interest rates — and often growth — to fall. Every US recession since the 1970s was preceded by an inversion, but there have also been inversions without an immediate recession, and the lag can be a year or more.
Why do US Treasury yields matter for India?
The 10-year US Treasury is the global benchmark “risk-free” rate. When it rises, capital tends to flow out of emerging markets like India toward US bonds, pressuring the rupee and Indian equities; when it falls, the opposite. It also influences Indian corporate borrowing costs abroad.