MoneyTrack the US Federal Reserve policy rate and the Treasury yield curve — the two numbers that move global markets.
| Maturity | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Month | — | — |
| 5-Year | — | — |
| 10-Year | — | — |
| 30-Year | — | — |
Yields are the CBOE indicative rates for on-the-run US Treasuries, updated through the US session. “3-Month” is the 13-week T-bill discount rate, used here as the short-end reference in place of the 2-year note.
What the yield curve tells you
The yield curve plots US government borrowing costs from 3 months to 30 years. Normally it slopes upward — lenders want more for locking money away longer. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields (an inversion), it signals that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in future, usually because growth is slowing. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is the version the New York Fed uses in its recession-probability model.
How to read the numbers above
- The 3-month yield tracks where the Fed has set short-term rates right now. It moves when the Fed hikes or cuts — see the Fed rate monitor.
- The 10-year yield reflects the market’s longer-run view of growth and inflation, plus global demand for US bonds. It sets the tone for mortgage rates and for capital flows into and out of emerging markets.
- The spread (10Y − 3M) is the shape signal. Positive and widening = the market expects a healthy expansion. Negative = an inversion, the classic late-cycle warning. Watch the trend, not a single day.
- The 30-year yield is driven by very-long-run inflation expectations and by how much government debt the market has to absorb.
Frequently asked questions
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
It means investors can earn more on a 3-month Treasury bill than on a 10-year note. That only makes sense if they expect interest rates — and often growth — to fall. Every US recession since the 1970s was preceded by an inversion, but there have also been inversions without an immediate recession, and the lag can be a year or more.
Why do US Treasury yields matter for India?
The 10-year US Treasury is the global benchmark “risk-free” rate. When it rises, capital tends to flow out of emerging markets like India toward US bonds, pressuring the rupee and Indian equities; when it falls, the opposite. It also influences Indian corporate borrowing costs abroad.
Does an inversion mean I should sell stocks?
No. An inversion is a slow-moving macro signal, not a trading trigger — the stock market has often kept rising for many months after the curve inverted. It is context for a long-term view, not a timing call, and this page is not investment advice.
What is the difference between the 2-year and 3-month version?
Analysts track both the 10Y−2Y and 10Y−3M spreads. The 3-month version reacts faster to Fed policy and is the one the New York Fed uses in its published recession model; the 2-year version is smoother. They usually tell the same story with a slight lag.
Where does this yield data come from?
The figures are the CBOE’s indicative rates for on-the-run US Treasuries (tickers ^IRX, ^FVX, ^TNX, ^TYX), updated through the US trading session. The US Treasury also publishes an official daily par yield curve.